| 181 | 0 | 131 |
| 下载次数 | 被引频次 | 阅读次数 |
夜间交通事故频率高且容易导致严重后果，特别是对行人这一弱势交通群体的安全构成威胁，因此，有必要深入研究夜间行人-机动车事故的影响因素。考虑到事故数据的异质性，使用随机参数Logit模型对2017—2022年夜间行人-机动车事故数据建模，事故严重程度分为3类：无/可能伤害、轻伤(非致残伤害)、重伤(死亡/致残伤害),并从行人特征、驾驶员特征、碰撞特征、道路特征、时间和环境特征5个方面共选取30个影响因素作为自变量，旨在深入探究夜间行人-机动车事故严重性的影响因素及其异质性。结果表明，驾驶员饮酒、限速32～40 km/h、有路灯照明、驾驶员受伤4个变量为随机参数变量，对夜间行人-机动车事故伤害严重程度的影响表现出未观察到的异质性。行人受伤、行车方向为直行等变量与轻伤事故的发生显著相关，发展程度为城市、道路等级为地方公路等变量与重伤事故的发生显著相关。
Abstract：The frequency of nighttime traffic accidents is high and easily leads to serious consequences, especially posing a threat to the safety of pedestrians as a vulnerable group in traffic. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct in-depth research on the factors influencing nighttime pedestrian-vehicle accidents. Considering the heterogeneity of accident data, a random parameter Logit model is used to establish nighttime pedestrian-vehicle accident data from 2017 to 2022. The severity of the accidents is divided into three categories: no/possible injury, minor injury(non-disabling injury) and severe injury(death/disabling injury). A total of 30 influencing factors are selected as independent variables from pedestrian characteristics, driver characteristics, collision characteristics, road characteristics, time, and environmental characteristics, aiming to explore the factors influencing the severity of nighttime pedestrian-vehicle accidents and their heterogeneity. The results indicate that driver alcohol consumption, speed limit 32～40 km/h, presence of street lighting and driver injury are four random parameter variables displaying unobserved heterogeneity in influencing the severity of nighttime pedestrian-vehicle accidents. Variables such as pedestrian injury, traveling direction(straight), urban development level and road grade(local road) are significantly associated with the occurrence of minor and severe injuries in accidents.
[1] 魏宇浩，秦华.外卖电动自行车在交叉口的风险行为研究[J].北京建筑大学学报，2021,37(1):25-30.WEI Y H,QIN H.Study on risk behavior of take-away electric bicycles at intersections[J].Journal of Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture,2021,37(1):25-30.(in Chinese)
[2] 赵传林，丁力，孙阳琪，等.青年学生面对交通事故视频的主客观状态研究[J].北京建筑大学学报，2024,40(4):63-72.ZHAO C L,DING L,SUN Y Q,et al.Study on the subjective and objective state of young students facing traffic accident videos[J].Journal of Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture,2024,40(4):63-72.(in Chinese)
[3] 乔伟栋，焦朋朋，朱晨冉，等.照明对“本本族”驾驶人生理特性影响分析[J].北京建筑大学学报，2017,33(1):39-42,80.QIAO W D,JIAO P P,ZHU C R.Influence of carless young drivers' physiological characteristic research based on illuminant[J].Journal of Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture,2017,33(1):39-42,80.(in Chinese)
[4] KEALL M D,FRITH W J,PATTERSON T L.The contribution of alcohol to night time crash risk and other risks of night driving[J].Accident Analysis & Prevention,2005,37(5):816-824.
[5] RETTING R A,FERGUSON S A,MCCARTT A T.A Review of evidence-based traffic engineering measures designed to reduce pedestrian-motor vehicle crashes[J].American Journal of Public Health,2003,93(9):1456-1463.
[6] HOSSAIN A,SUN X,THAPA R,et al.Exploring association of contributing factors to pedestrian fatal and severe injury crashes under dark-no-streetlight condition[J].IATSS Research,2023,47(2):214-224.
[7] SHANKAR V,MANNERING F.An exploratory multinomial logit analysis of single vehicle motorcycle accident severity[J].Journal of Safety Research,1996,27(3):183-194.
[8] 叶之放，靳文舟，汤左淦.基于广义有序logit模型的翻车事故伤害程度估计[J].河南科学，2019,37(1):119-126.YE Z F,JIN W Z,TANG Z G.Estimation of injury severity in vehicle overturn accidents based on the generalized ordered Logit model [J].Henan Science,2019,37(1):119-126.(in Chinese)
[9] 祁欣月，杨灿.基于广义有序Logit模型的运行速度安全性研究[J].公路与汽运，2024,40(1):55-60,67.QI X Y,YANG C.Research on operating speed safety based on the generalized ordered Logit model[J].Highway and Automotive,2024,40(1):55-60,67.(in Chinese)
[10] MANNERING F L,SHANKAR V,BHAT C R.Unobserved heterogeneity and the statistical analysis of highway accident data[J].Analytic Methods in Accident Research,2016,11:1-16.
[11] MOOMEN M,MOLAN A M,KSAIBATI K.A random parameters multinomial Logit model analysis of median barrier crash injury severity on Wyoming interstates[J].Sustainability,2023,15(14):10856.
[12] ALKHEDER S.Studying the effect of built environment on traffic safety with random parameter and generalized ordered logit models[J].Urban Climate,2023,47:101388.
[13] YAN X,HE J,ZHANG C,et al.Temporal instability and age differences of determinants affecting injury severities in nighttime crashes[J].Analytic Methods in Accident Research,2023,38:100268.
[14] ISLAM M,ALNAWMASI N,MANNERING F.Unobserved heterogeneity and temporal instability in the analysis of work-zone crash-injury severities[J].Analytic Methods in Accident Research,2020,28:100130.
[15] DAMSERE-DERRY J,ADANU E K,OJO T K,et al.Injury-severity analysis of intercity bus crashes in Ghana:A random parameters multinomial logit with heterogeneity in means and variances approach[J].Accident Analysis & Prevention,2021,160:106323.
[16] SAM E F,DANIELS S,BRIJS K,et al.Modelling public bus/minibus transport accident severity in Ghana[J].Accident Analysis & Prevention,2018,119:114-121.
基本信息:
DOI：10.19740/j.2096-9872.2025.02.08
中图分类号:U491.31
引用信息:
[1]唐玉洁,焦朋朋,王健宇,等.基于随机参数Logit模型的夜间行人-机动车事故严重程度致因分析[J].北京建筑大学学报,2025,41(02):62-71.DOI:10.19740/j.2096-9872.2025.02.08.
基金信息:
北京市社会科学基金项目(21GLA010); 北京建筑大学研究生创新项目(PG2024054)