56 | 0 | 14 |
下载次数 | 被引频次 | 阅读次数 |
城市建筑垃圾的大量产生造成极大的资源浪费和环境污染,随着城市更新的持续推进,建筑垃圾将不断增多,因此对建筑垃圾产生量的准确预测将有利于建筑垃圾资源化治理,但目前城市建筑垃圾产生量的相关数据及其深入分析相对欠缺阻碍了对建筑垃圾治理的研究。为此,尝试利用建筑面积估算法对2014—2023年北京市建筑垃圾产生量进行估算,并采用多元线性回归模型对建筑垃圾产生量进行预测和分析,发现北京市未来五年的建筑垃圾产生量虽然巨大但将保持在一个相对稳定状态。在分析基础上提出3点建议,以期为北京市建筑垃圾治理及后续研究提供数据支撑和理论依据。
Abstract:The substantial generation of urban construction waste poses significant challenges in terms of resource depletion and environmental pollution. As urban renewal efforts continue to advance, construction waste volumes are projected to increase steadily. Consequently, accurate prediction of construction waste generation will facilitate enhanced resource utilization and management strategies. However, current research on construction waste management is hindered by a relative scarcity of comprehensive data and indepth analysis pertaining to urban construction waste generation volumes. To address this gap, a building area-based estimation method to quantify construction waste output in Beijing from 2014 to 2023 is employed. Subsequently, a multiple linear regression model is applied to predict and analyze future waste generation trends. The findings indicate that while construction waste output in Beijing over the next five years will remain substantial, it is expected to stabilize at a relatively consistent level. Based on the analysis, several recommendations are proposed to provide data support and a theoretical foundation for improving construction waste management in Beijing and informing subsequent research.
[1]李强,申玲,陈芊与.基于循环经济的建筑垃圾资源化利用文献综述[J].工程经济,2020,30(2):68-72.LI Q,SHEN L,CHEN Q Y. A literature review of the resource utilization of construction waste based on circular economy[J]. Engineering Economics, 2020,30(2):68-72.(in Chinese)
[2]张敏,董莉,刘景洋,等.基于物质流分析的建筑垃圾产生量预测[J].环境工程技术学报,2021,11(5):869-878.ZHANG M,DONG L,LIU J Y,et al. Prediction of construction waste generation based on mass flow analysis[J]. Journal of Environmental Engineering Technology,2021,11(5):869-878.(in Chinese)
[3] HUANG L,CAI T,ZHU Y,et al. LSTM-based forecasting for urban construction waste generation[J]. Sustainability,2020,12(20):8555.
[4]陈翠良,杨建新,吕彬,等.城市建筑废物产生量估算与预测方法——以海南省为例[J].环境科学与技术,2012,35(11):173-179.CHEN C L,YANG J X,LU B,et al. Estimation and prediction method of urban construction waste production:a case study of Hainan province[J].Environmental Science and Technology, 2012,35(11):173-179.(in Chinese)
[5]江静.基于物质流分析的装修垃圾产生量测算及碳排放研究[D].北京:北京建筑大学,2024.JAING J. Measurement of decoration waste generation and carbon emission research based on material flow analysis[D]. Beijing:Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture,2024.(in Chinese)
[6]王秋菲,王盛楠,石丹.基于灰色理论的建筑垃圾产生量的预测研究[J].沈阳建筑大学学报(社会科学版),2015,17(5):518-523.WANG Q F,WANG S N,SHI D. Prediction of construction waste generation based on gray theory[J].Journal of Shenyang Jianzhu University(Social Sciences Edition), 2015 ,17(5):518-523.(in Chinese)
[7]周豪奇,张云宁,赵杰.基于灰色预测模型GM(1,1)的建筑垃圾产生量研究[J].武汉理工大学学报(信息与管理工程版),2016,38(5):612-615.ZHOU H Q,ZHANG Y N,ZHAO J. Research on construction waste production based on gray prediction model GM(1,1)[J]. Journal of Wuhan University of Technology(Information and Management Engineering Edition), 2016,38(5):612-615.(in Chinese)
[8] CHA G W,MOON H J,KIM Y C. Comparison of random forest and gradient boosting machine models for predicting demolition waste based on small datasets and categorical variables[J]. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health , 2021 ,18(16):8530.
[9]许元,李聪.城镇建筑垃圾量的多元线性回归分析[J].砖瓦,2015(9):8-10.XU Y,LI C. Multiple linear regression analysis of urban construction waste volume[J]. Tile, 2015(9):8-10.(in Chinese)
[10] WANG F P,LIU Y,GAO S Y,et al. Prediction of construction waste in representative cities of north and south based on grey model[J]. IOP Conference Series:Earth and Environmental Science,2020,615(1):012033.
[11]郭秋雨.基于BP神经网络的建筑垃圾产生量预测研究[D].济南:山东建筑大学,2023.GUO Q Y. Research on construction waste yield prediction based on BP neural network[D]. Jinan:Shandong Jianzhu University,2023.(in Chinese)
[12]张杰,朱家明.基于多元回归和三次指数平滑法对垃圾总量的预测[J].齐鲁工业大学学报,2020,34(4):69-74.ZHANG J,ZHU J M. Prediction of total waste based on multiple regression and cubic exponential smoothing method[J]. Journal of Qilu University of Technology,2020,34(4):69-74.(in Chinese)
[13] TANG S J,ZHANG L X,HAO Y,et al. System dynamics modeling for construction material flows of urban residential building:a case study of Beijing,China[J].Resources,Conservation and Recycling, 2021,168:105298
[14]陈天杰.成都都市建筑垃圾减排及资源化利用研究[D].成都:西南交通大学,2014.CHEN T J. Research on emission reduction and resource utilization of urban construction waste in Chengdu[D].Chendu:Southwest Jiaotong University,2014.(in Chinese)
[15]邓珊,刘立国.绿色经济理念下的建筑垃圾处理研究[J].建筑经济,2014(7):98-100.DENG S,LIU L G. Research on construction waste treatment under the concept of green economy[J].Construction economy ,2014(7):98-100.(in Chinese)
[16]张小娟.国内城市建筑垃圾资源化研究分析[D].西安:西安建筑科技大学,2013.ZHANG X J. Research and analysis of domestic urban construction waste recycling[D]. Xi’an:Xi’an University of Architecture and Technology,2013.(in Chinese)
[17]贾顺.重庆市建筑垃圾现状分析及综合利用研究[D].重庆:重庆大学,2012.JIA S. Analysis of the current situation and comprehensive utilization of construction waste in Chongqing[D]. Chongqing:Chongqing University,2012.(in Chinese)
[18]董莉,刘景洋,张泽乾,等.基于动态物质流的北京市城乡住房建筑垃圾产生量模拟预测[J].中国环境科学,2025,45(4):2041-2052.DONG L,LIU J Y,ZHANG Z Q,et al. Simulation and prediction of urban and rural housing construction waste generation in Beijing based on dynamic material flow[J]. Chinese Environmental Science,2025,45(4):2041-2052.(in Chinese)
[19] LIU H M,GUO R,TIAN J J,et al. Quantifying the carbon reduction potential of recycling construction waste based on life cycle assessment:a case of Jiangsu province[J]. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health,2022,19(19):12628.
[20]左浩坤,付双立.北京市建筑垃圾产生量预测及处置设施建设分布研究[J].环境卫生工程,2011,19(2):63-64.ZUO H K,FU S L. Research on the prediction of construction waste generation and the distribution of construction and disposal facilities in Beijing[J].Environmental sanitation engineering,2011,19(2):63-64.(in Chinese)
[21] LU W S,LOU J F,WEBSTER C,et al. Estimating construction waste generation in the Greater Bay Area,China using machine learning[J]. Waste management(New York, N. Y.),2021,134:78-88.
[22] ABDULREDHA M,Al KHADDAR R, JORDAN D, et al. Estimating solid waste generation by hospitality industry during major festivals:a quantification model based on multiple regression[J]. Waste Manage, 2018,77:388-400.
基本信息:
DOI:10.19740/j.2096-9872.2025.04.04
中图分类号:X799.1
引用信息:
[1]秦颖,王祯顺,秦光宇.城市建筑垃圾产生量多元回归预测——以北京市为例[J].北京建筑大学学报,2025,41(04):30-35.DOI:10.19740/j.2096-9872.2025.04.04.
基金信息:
教育部人文社会科学研究一般基金项目(24YJAZH115)